ManpowerGroup: Romanian Employers Forecast Steady Job Gains In Q3/2017

With only 7% of employers foreseeing a decrease in staffing levels and 64% anticipating no change, the seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook stands at +14%, weakening slightly, by 2 percentage points, over Q2/2017, but relatively stable in comparison to last year at this time.

“Seven years of positive hiring intentions, and more than eight consecutive quarters of double-digit forecasts and associated payroll growth are impacting the availability of talent in the market, as shown by the historically low levels of unemployment recorded in April, and the widely spread talent shortage affecting 73% percent of Romanian employers, according to ManpowerGroup’s recent research. As Romanian employers once again anticipate steady job gains in the July-September interval, the time is ripe for companies to rethink their people practices and become builders of talent, because finding it on the market is less and less an option,” says Igor Hahn, Country Manager, ManpowerGroup Romania.

The positive employment perspectives are however trending softer than in Q2/2017 in seven out of 10 industry sectors and six out of eight regions, and Outlooks also weaken year-over-year in six sectors and four regions. The steepest quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year decline is reported in the Center region, where the +10% Net Employment Outlook is 19 percentage points weaker than in Q2/2017 and 15 percentage points weaker than in Q3/2016. Quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year declines of 14 and 12 percentage points, respectively, are also reported in the West region. Conversely, perspectives in the North-East region brighten considerably. The +16% Q3 /2017 Net Employment Outlook for the region is 17 percentage points stronger than last year, and improves over Q2/2017 by 11 percentage points. The most optimistic regional Outlooks, of +20%, are reported in the Bucharest & Ilfov, North-West and South regions, while the weakest regional labor market is forecast in the South-East region (+4%).

When the industry sectors are compared, the most optimistic hiring intentions, with an Outlook of +27%, are reported in the Manufacturing sector where the forecast is however the weakest in the past six quarters, declining by 3 and 8 percentage points from Q2 2017 and Q3 2016, respectively. A healthy hiring climate is also forecast in the Wholesale and Retail Sector, with a Net Employment Outlook of +24%, which improves by 2 percentage points over Q3/2016, but weakens over last quarter by 5 percentage points. Electricity, Gas & Water Supply sector employers report the weakest sector Outlook of 0%. Hiring prospects decline by 10 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter, but improve by 3 percentage points when compared with the third quarter of 2016. The hiring perspectives in the sector have only been positive once in more than 5 years.

Employers in three of the four categories of organization size are optimistic, with large organizations forecasting a Net Employment Outlook of +25%, which softens over Q2/2017 by 3 percentage points, but remains stable compared to last year at this time. Employers in micro organizations are however cautious, reporting a flat Net Employment Outlook of 0%, 6 percentage points weaker than last quarter, and 9 percentage points weaker than in Q3/2016.

The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is the longest-running, most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, commencing in 1962 and now polling almost 59,000 employers in 43 countries and territories to measure their intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter.

In Romania, the Q3/2017 survey was conducted by InfoCorp Ltd. between April 19 th – May 2nd 2017 on a representative sample of 625 employers. The margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 3.9%.

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