CFA Romania Analysts Expect Drop in Leu, Rise in Interests As Confidence Drops

The macroeconomic confidence index dropped by 5.3 points in September, for the fourth month running, to 45.4 points, the institution said Thursday.

The current conditions index reached 63.9 points, down 4.6 points compared with August, and the expectations index fell by 5.7 points, down to 36.1 points, its lowest value since October 2012.

Around 79% of certified financial analysts expect the leu to weaken in the next 12 months. Expectations regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate in the next 6 and 12 months stand at RON4.63 to the euro and RON4.66 to the euro, respectively.

The inflation rate is seen at 2.36% in the next 12 months (October 2017/October 2018), CFA Romania said in a statement.

The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 and aims to evaluate financial analysts’ expectations regarding the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon.

The macroeconomic confidence index is calculated on a scale ranging from zero (no confidence) to 100 points (full confidence in the Romanian economy).

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