JCR revises Romania’s rating outlook to stable
„The JCR announcement is a welcome one and demonstrates once again that the necessary measures adopted in 2025 to balance public finances and reduce the budget deficit are in line with the commitments assumed by our country in the medium term. At the same time, the agency’s statement also represents a message of confidence for Japanese investors, given that Romania, through the Ministry of Finance, intends to be a frequent issuer on the Samurai bond market in Japan, in order to diversify the investment base”, stated Alexandru Nazare, Minister of Finance.
According to a statement from the Ministry of Finance, the JCR highlights the success of the fiscal packages implemented in 2025, which put the deficit on a downward trajectory: “The government deficit was reduced from 8.7% in 2024 to 7.7% in 2025. For 2026, the measures taken, which include taxing dividends, controlling wage expenditures and freezing social benefits, are estimated to reduce the deficit to 6.2% of GDP. Although public debt reached 59.6% of GDP at the end of 2025, the JCR estimates that it will stabilize as the deficit decreases, remaining at a relatively low level compared to other countries with a similar rating.”
A central element of the JCR report emphasizes the importance of the link between European financing and domestic reforms. The agency notes that although economic growth slowed to 0.7% in 2025 due to inflation and a contraction in private consumption, it is expected to rebound to 1% in 2026. This momentum will be supported by an increase in capital investment financed through the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), which matures this year, as well as an improvement in net exports amid falling imports.
For fiscal consolidation in the medium and long term, the JCR considers it essential that the government maintains net expenditure growth, defined as a benchmark for fiscal management, within the level recommended by the EU Council in July 2025.
“The agency closely monitors the steady progress in meeting the numerous milestones related to structural reforms required to receive RRF subsidies. This path is considered vital for the gradual recovery of private consumption and the return of economic growth towards the 2% threshold in the medium term, once the effects of fiscal adjustment measures are fully absorbed by the economy. The JCR report also confirms the stability of the Romanian financial system. The banking sector has maintained a robust financial position despite the volatile macroeconomic environment, thus providing a solid basis for the implementation of consolidation policies and for maintaining foreign investor confidence,” the statement added.