Oxford Economics Revises Up Romania's 2011 GDP Growth To +0.1%

Oxford Economics revised its forecast for Romania’s economic growth in 2011 from a negative 1% to a “marginal” increase of 0.1%, but warned that the main growth catalyst, the exports, is also a vulnerability.

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"The main driver of growth remains exports, which in December were up over 30% on the year in euro terms. But this leaves Romania vulnerable if EU demand were to weaken," an Oxford Economics analysis shows.

The analysts added that although Romania's economy will continue to underachieve this year, fiscal consolidation is paramount for durable recovery.

Thus, Oxford Economics sees economic growth of 0.1% this year, mainly due to expected 7% increase in exports and 5.2% widening of industrial output.

The International Monetary Fund and the local government expect the gross domestic product to grow by 1.5%.

The year 2012, however, presents a much better outlook for Romania, with a 4.8% estimated rise in the GDP, as private consumption is set for recovery, as well as investment and public consumption, according to Oxford Economics.

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