Signs of inflation: Industry starts the year with price increases. Energy, the main driver of growth

Ex-factory prices rose by 2.2% in January 2026 compared to December and are 7.8% higher than in January 2025, according to data published by the National Institute of Statistics.

Price increases were more pronounced on the domestic market than on the export market. For the Romanian market, the annual increase was 9.31%, while for the foreign market the increase was 4.12%, which shows that cost pressures are particularly evident in the local economy.

The largest price increase was recorded in the energy industry. Overall, prices in this sector are 14.3% higher than a year ago. If we look strictly at the production and supply of electricity and heat, gas, hot water, and air conditioning, the increase reaches 19.38% compared to January 2025. In practice, energy was the main driver of price increases in industry.

The increases are also visible from month to month. In the energy sector, the monthly increase exceeded 5% in January. In the manufacturing industry—which includes most factories in Romania—the increase compared to the previous month was 0.47%, a sign that pressures are coming from both energy costs and production chains.

The increases are more moderate in other sectors. The intermediate goods industry—materials and products used in other production processes—grew by 5.2% compared to last year. Consumer goods rose by 5.19%, capital goods by 3.89%, and durable goods by 3.47%.

However, there are also areas where prices have fallen. Crude oil and natural gas extraction recorded a 4.65% decline compared to January 2025, and the manufacture of petroleum products fell by 12.46%. The extractive industry as a whole is slightly below last year’s level.

In contrast, prices in the coal mining sector rose by more than 12%, a sign that energy resource prices are unstable. Other notable increases are in water distribution and sanitation, where prices are up by almost 13%, but also in sectors such as the manufacture of rubber and plastic products and the furniture industry.

However, not all sectors have followed the same trend. There are also areas where prices have fallen compared to last year. In the crude oil processing sector, the decline was 12.46%, and in crude oil and natural gas extraction, the decline was 4.65%. Overall, the extractive industry is slightly below the January 2025 level. These developments show that, while electricity and heat prices have risen sharply, the oil sector has seen a different trend.

The increases in January are important because industrial prices are often an early indicator of inflation. When energy and raw materials become more expensive at the producer level, the costs can be gradually transferred to the final prices paid by the population. If the trend continues in the coming months, pressure on retail prices could continue.